Russia strikes Ukrainian train station near border with Poland, raising many questions, including: Was this an attempted assassination of diplomatic officials?

A Russian drone strike on a train station in Ukraine yesterday, close to the border with Poland appeared to be targeting a train carrying diplomatic officials that had just left the station a few minutes earlier. Did the attack represent an escalation of Russia's war with Ukraine; could it worsen unrest already present in the region? A number of sources, including officials on the apparently targeted train, indicated Russian President Vladimir Putin likely was acting with dubious motives. A prominent commentator in the United States agreed with that assessment.

A jointly published report at UPI and Yahoo! News provides details under the headline "Boris Johnson, David Petraeus, other officials escape drone attack unhurt." Paul Godfrey writes: 

Russia launched a drone strike on a Ukrainian train standing at a station close to the border with Poland shortly after a diplomatic train carrying former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and other British and EU security officials left the station.

The Warsaw-bound train of Johnson, British National Security Advisor Jonathan Powell and the other officials passed through Yahodyn Station ahead of schedule on Sunday en route back from a conference they had been attending in Kyiv.

By the time the drone struck, the train had already crossed into Poland and no one was hurt. Passengers aboard the train that was hit were evacuated safely ahead of the attack with about 15 minutes to spare. 

Robert Scott Horton -- attorney, lecturer at Columbia University Law School, contributing editor at Harper's Magazine, and highly regarded analyst on foreign affairs --writes at BlueSky with a sense of foreboding about the incident near the Ukraine-Poland border. First he raises a question that surely is on the minds of many experts who follow the region:

Did Putin just try to kill Boris Johnson?

The former PM is a fierce Ukraine ally and has a history with the Russian president. 

Horton then provides his answer to the question, and it doesn't provide hope for stability in an unstable region:

Just asking the question politicos across Britain are asking this morning . . . 

And the answer is "yes, probably."

Officials who were on the diplomatic train seemed to think Horton's assessment was on target. They clearly were shaken by the incident but also displayed a deep sense of anger toward Putin. From the UPI/Yahoo! report:

"I don't know what warped logic drove [Russian President Vladimir] Putin to blow up a stationary Ukrainian locomotive on the Polish border this morning," said Johnson, calling it "the kind of random and senseless attack Ukrainians are enduring every day -- even on civilian railways."

He appealed to Kyiv's allies to give Ukrainians "the air defenses they need," as a matter of urgency. 

Former CIA Director David Petraeus, who was aboard another train stopped at Yahodyn Station at the moment of impact, described the attack as "terrifying."

"This is the act of a truly barbaric leader trying to terrorize Ukrainian civilians" he said.

Johnson, Powell, Petraeus and the others had been attending the 23rd Yalta European Strategy conference.

Ahead of an emergency meeting of his cabinet to address the incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the danger level was rising.

"The escalation of the actions from the Russian side is becoming a reality, and they are getting closer and closer to our border," said Tusk.

How dangerous could the situation along the Ukraine-Poland border be getting? Poland is a member of NATO, and Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty calls for collective defense, meaning:

Johnson, Powell, Petraeus and the others had been attending the 23rd Yalta European Strategy conference.

Ahead of an emergency meeting of his cabinet to address the incident, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk warned that the danger level was rising.

"The escalation of the actions from the Russian side is becoming a reality, and they are getting closer and closer to our border," said Tusk. 

NATO has 32 members, and they include the following:

Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Turkey, United Kingdom, United States. 

Does Putin really want to start a confrontation with a collective defense organization that now includes former Soviet satellite states, such as Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Romania, East Germany and Albania -- along with former Soviet republics (the Baltic States) Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.