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| Better together? Russians think so (Reuters) |
If you live in the United States and ever have voted for Donald Trump, did you do so with the expectation that he would bring cheer to . . . Russia? That is what appears to be happening right now in the wake of Trump's most recent pro-Putin steps, according to a report at The Washington Post. In fact, folks at the Kremlin seem positively giddy about the notion that Trump's actions suggest Western support for Ukraine is tumbling. When is the last time Americans -- perhaps aside from a few MAGA cultists -- were giddy about anything Trump has done? Under the headline "Russia, sensing victory, cheers Trump's latest shift against Ukraine; Kremlin officials are crowing that Western support of Ukraine is about to collapse, and Trump's recent moves are steps to closer alignment between Russia and the United States," Catherine Belton writes:
The Kremlin is counting the Trump administration’s latest turn against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a major triumph and, coupled with political upheaval in Europe, a sign that Western support for Ukraine is finally crumbling.
In the 10 days since Vladimir Putin last spoke by telephone with the American president, Donald Trump has announced a sanctions waiver for Russian diesel supplies to the global market, throttled Ukraine’s access to vital battlefield satellite systems, put sweeping new sanctions against Russia on hold, as well as moved even more firmly to Russia’s side by calling for Zelensky’s ouster and holding up supplies of critical interceptor missiles.
On Monday, Trump blasted the Ukrainian president again, saying it was “time for somebody else to negotiate on behalf of Ukraine.”
Looking back to the subhead above on The Post's story, it raises this question: Has any American ever voted for Trump with the hope that it would help bring closer relations between Russia and the United States? If so, those voters should be happy because Kremlin officials appear to be delighted about the possibility. Belton writes:
The stakes seem higher than ever. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff traveled to Oslo on Tuesday to meet Zelensky, Finnish President Alexander Stubb and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store. Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, joined via video link.
“The aim is to put diplomatic efforts on a more constructive path,” Store said.
Zelensky said on Sunday that if Washington aligned with Russia, Ukraine would not survive.
“If the United States will support Putin — it’s unbelievable, it’s a tragedy,” he told NBC News’ Meet the Press on Sunday. “If these two countries will be together, of course we will not prevail. And we will not be able to stand.”
While the European leaders and Zelensky might hope to use the Oslo meeting to steer the Trump administration to a tougher stance against Moscow, Kremlin officials have been crowing that victory over Ukraine is on the horizon, and that Trump’s recent moves are steps toward an ever-closer alignment between Washington and Moscow.
Trump’s recent ratcheting-up of pressure on Zelensky could mean the U.S. president is again seeking to strong-arm the Ukrainian leader into a deal on terms favorable to Moscow.
Even Russian elites, which inlude a number of pro-Putin oligarchs, seem to sense that things are turning in their direction, Belton reports. A Kremlin spokesman suggests an inevitable and unfavorable outcome looms in Ukraine's future. What is all this Moscow-based positivity about? It seems to be a gift from Donald Trump -- perhaps in his role as what Hillary Clinton once called "Putin's puppet." Belton writes:
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that Witkoff was expected to brief Putin following the Oslo talks.
Earlier, Peskov said Ukraine’s recent resumption of strikes on Russian oil refineries — in defiance of Trump’s demands — showed Zelensky’s administration in its death throes.
“Some final signs of agony are being observed,” Peskov said. “The Kyiv regime is resisting. But this cannot change the course of events.”
“Checkmate,” Kremlin special envoy Kirill Dmitriev posted triumphantly.
In Moscow, members of the Russian elite said that Putin, a former KGB officer, once again managed to turn the U.S. president.
Putin has decades of experience charming and manipulating foreign leaders, and has demonstrated a consistent ability to flatter Trump and pull him on side, analysts and officials said.
Those words suggest prominent Russians expect Trump to be an easy mark for Putin. My guess is that they are right about that. Knowledgeable observers say that Putin took a different tact with Trump this time. Instead of flattering the U.S. president, Putin played on his insecurities -- especially an unsettled situation at home, marked by a scuffling economy, consumer angst, and cratering poll numbers. Here is more from The Post:
This time, (analysts) said, the Russian leader preyed on Trump’s fears over low approval ratings and sky-high energy prices ahead of the U.S. midterm elections, offering a deal on Russian diesel fuel that will supply just a fraction of America’s daily consumption and have no impact on prices.
On Friday, the average U.S. diesel price continued to climb to $6.33 per gallon, an increase of about 5 cents per gallon from the previous week.
“Russia’s leaders have achieved a certain political victory,” said a Russian academic close to senior Russian diplomats, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive diplomacy. “All this happened after their telephone call. Probably Putin was able to convince Trump.
”Putin, the academic added, “probably conducted this conversation very professionally and prepared his arguments well.”
Mikhail Khodorkovsky, once Russia’s richest man and now an opposition leader in exile, said recent events followed a pattern in Putin’s relations with Trump.
“I am absolutely convinced that they believe they managed to take advantage, as they always do; they are opportunists,” Khodorkovsky said. “In this case, they believe they have waited for the moment of Trump’s additional weakness and [taken] advantage of it.”
“For Putin, everything that is happening today are signs of the West’s weakness,” he said.
Many Americans probably do not realize it, but Russian officials already have a vision of how a tight U.S.-Russia relationship might look and operate. Donald Trump is central to their plans, Belton reports:
Dmitriev, the special envoy, and other Russian officials hailed the diesel deal and Trump’s waiving of tough sanctions that were to be imposed under a bill adopted in honor of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, a firm GOP supporter of Ukraine, as steps toward broader Russia-U.S. economic cooperation.
Historically, Russia and the U.S. have never been big economic partners, with Russia exporting little of interest to the U.S. market.
“There is a whole range of economic and investment projects being discussed with the American side that will be implemented,” Dmitriev told a Russian energy forum last week. “Our list of projects being discussed with the American side also includes various projects in the Arctic, energy projects, LNG [liquefied natural gas] projects and other areas.”
Belton's sources point to a late-August event in North Carolina as a turning point in the Putin-Trump alliance:
After an Aug. 31 meeting with Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov at a Group of 20 event in Asheville, North Carolina, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent blamed Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil refineries as the reason for surging fuel prices — rather than the war in Iran.
It was then easy for Putin to recruit Trump into sharing that viewpoint, some observers said.
“The simplest explanation is that Trump was interested in having a talking point for the midterms on diesel, that he has a deal to lower it, said Daniel Fried, a former assistant secretary of state for Europe during George W. Bush’s administration.
“I think it is just Trump lashing out because he’s feeling cornered and unhappy with the midterms, and Zelensky stood in his way,” Fried said, especially after Zelensky publicly derided Trump as “weak” after he announced the diesel deal.
“Trump then extended his frustration to add pressure and try to force a settlement based on a great power deal with Putin, who is skilled at playing his more gullible interlocutors,” he said.
If Putin is big on "gullible interlocutors," he almost certainly found the right guy in Trump. Officials close to the situation seem to know that. It's unclear if American voters, with midterm elections coming on Nov. 3, know that. At the heart of all this is a view that Putin and Trump have shared for many years, even decades, Belton writes:
That Trump and Putin share a view that strongmen should dominate a world divided into spheres of influence made it even easier for Putin, Fried added. “Trump appears to have been attracted to this view for decades,” he said. “And therefore, Ukraine is expendable on strategic grounds, in Trump’s view, and it was standing in the way of a perfectly good campaign talking point.”

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