The bad news in yesterday's primary elections is that Donald Trump still has influence in Indiana. The good news is that Chedrick Greene won Michigan’s special election, ensuring Democrats will maintain control of the state Senate through the remainder of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s term at year’s end. Even more good news is that former Sen. Sherrod Brown has won the Democratic nomination in Ohio’s special Senate election, paving the way for a nationally watched general election matchup against Republican incumbent Jon Husted for J.D. Vance's old seat.
In hopeful news, according to a report at Politico, "We're about to find out if Trump is a kingmaker or lame duck; so far, his chosen candidates are struggling to dominate their fields.
Let's take a closer look at races in Indiana, where Trump has shown he still holds sway despite the war in Iran, a struggling economy, high gas prices, and other self-inflicted GOP wounds. That Indianans seem willing to overlook all of Trump's negatives does not speak well for the Hoosier state. Here is a special Legal Schnauzer advisory: Do not move to Indiana; after all we have learned about the Trump admin, Hoosiers still think this White House is worth supporting. That is stupid on steroids. Avoid! From a report at NBC News:
President Donald Trump exacted revenge on Indiana Republican legislators who foiled his redistricting push last year in the state, backing challengers who unseated five incumbents in Tuesday's primaries, NBC News projects.
One other GOP state senator who faced a Trump-endorsed opponent was locked in a tight race, while another survived.
The double-digit defeats of the five incumbents, some of whom are veterans of the Indiana Legislature, underscore the influence Trump continues to wield over the Republican Party, even as his approval rating among Americans broadly sags amid rising gas prices and the Iran war. Several other GOP-led states redrew their maps at Trump's urging. But ultimately, the heavy-handed pressure campaign from Trump and his allies backfired in Indiana. Six months later, several of those lawmakers paid the price for crossing Trump.
“Big night for MAGA in Indiana. Proud to have helped elect more conservative Republicans to the Indiana State Senate,” U.S. Sen. Jim Banks, R-Ind., whose aligned groups spent heavily ahead of Tuesday's primaries, wrote in a post on X. . . .
One state senator who drew Trump's ire, Greg Goode, won his primary Tuesday. Goode bested Vigo County Council member Brenda Wilson, who was backed by Trump, and Alexandra Wilson, a network engineer. One of the primaries remained too close to call Tuesday night. With nearly all of the expected vote in, state Sen. Spencer Deery led Paula Copenhaver, an aide to Lt. Gov. Micah Beckwith, by 3 votes.
Other high-profile races, in other states, will be decided later this month. This is from a summary at Politico:
May 16: Louisiana
Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow is struggling to dominate the polls in her primary challenge to unseat incumbent U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, who earned MAGA’s ire for voting to convict Trump on impeachment charges in 2021. The latest Emerson College poll shows Letlow locked in a close three-way race, with her at 27 percent, State Treasurer John Fleming at 28 percent and Cassidy at 21 percent. Nearly 1 in 4 likely GOP primary voters are undecided.
Letlow entered the race at Trump’s urging. She boasts endorsements from Louisiana’s GOP Gov. Jeff Landry and national groups like the Make America Healthy Again PAC, which has promised $1 million in support like distributing mailers — a needed financial boost given her middling war chest compared with Cassidy’s.
But Trump has not sent the cavalry for Letlow, withholding his own war chest and not making any trips to Louisiana on her behalf. The president recently doubled down on his campaign against Cassidy, telling GOP primary voters to kick the incumbent “OUT OF OFFICE” — but Trump notably did not name-drop Letlow or urge voters to back her.
May 19: Kentucky, Alabama and Georgia
Trump faces two very different tests of his influence in Kentucky, where he is simultaneously boosting Rep. Andy Barr as retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell’s successor and pushing to oust a longtime thorn in his side in Thomas Massie.
The president waded in late for Barr, endorsing the representative less than three weeks before the primary while also offering one of his two rivals, businessman Nate Morris, a job in his administration — a move that could help propel Barr past former Kentucky Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
But it is Massie’s 4th District race that may prove more troublesome for Trump. The president finally fronted a challenger to the renegade Republican after Massie voted against the party’s signature tax-and-spending package last year, and Trump’s allies have now poured more than $10 million into sinking the incumbent.
So far, Massie has withstood the onslaught. He leads his rival, former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, in polling, fundraising and name ID. One recent survey showed half of likely voters in his deep-red district with a libertarian bent preferred an independent-minded lawmaker, compared to 37 percent who wanted a strong Trump supporter.
Massie, who threads that needle by saying he’s with Trump “91 percent of the time,” argues that supporting him and the president aren’t “mutually exclusive things.” And he thinks the Trump-directed flood of outside money against him has its limits.
“If outside billionaires spend millions of dollars, they can change somebody’s profile,” Massie said in a recent interview. “But I think what they’re going to find out is that my brand is established well enough … that [they] can persuade some of the people, but they’re not going to be able to persuade enough of them.”
The president isn’t being driven by revenge in Alabama. But even there, his chosen candidate is battling to break through a crowded GOP primary field for Senate: The Trump-backed Rep. Barry Moore has a slight lead in public polling, while Attorney General Steve Marshall, who has been in office for nearly a decade, is holding his own.
Meanwhile in Georgia, Trump’s backing of Lt. Gov. Burt Jones’ gubernatorial run is a rebuke of Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger, who rose to national prominence by defying the president’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election and is himself running for governor.
Still, Trump’s endorsement has its limits: Rick Jackson, a health care executive, has a slight lead over Jones in most polls for the GOP primary as he also makes a play for the MAGA base. He’s been pummeling the lieutenant governor with millions spent on attack ads.
“If any other candidate had received that amount of negative, they would be polling within the margin of error of zero,” said a Georgia-based Republican strategist who is unaffiliated with any candidate and was granted anonymity to speak openly. “When you’re looking at the reasons why [Jones] is now in a toss-up race, I would say the President’s endorsement is by far the top reason why.”
May 26: Texas run-off
After Sen. John Cornyn finished ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas’ March primary, Republicans in Washington were on standby for Trump’s expected endorsement. It never came.
Perhaps in the clearest example of MAGA beginning to make decisions without Trump’s explicit approval, Texas Republicans have rallied around the scandal-plagued Paxton. Polling now shows that a Trump endorsement for Cornyn, at this point, likely wouldn’t sway voters significantly — and Paxton would maintain his edge.
GOP Texas consultant Vinny Minchillo says if Trump does decide to weigh in, he “will have to sell this to the faithful and tell them exactly what to do. Especially if he endorses Cornyn.”
Trump’s endorsement still matters, he said, but “less so with each day that passes.”
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