Democrats apply a "rebuke" to Republicans in Wisconsin, but even in Florida where Trump dominated in 2024, Dems made progress at the polls

Elon Musk's cheesehead did not help woo Wisconsin voters (MSNBC)

 

Democrats administered what one news outlet called a "rebuke" to MAGA in Wisconsin yesterday. But that was not the only bitter pill for Donald Trump and Elon Musk to swallow. Republicans won two Congressional districts in Florida, but analysts tended to conclude that the GOP underperformed in a deep-red state that Trump won last November by an overwhelming margin. So what does it all mean? We can point to two trends that voters might want to track moving forward:

(1) Musk turned from a hero into an albatross almost overnight;

(2) The GOP might be hearing a "freight train comin' round the bend" as the 2026 midterms approach, when Trump will not be on the ballot.

How did this stunning development come to pass, especially when you consider that Musk essentially bought the presidency for Trump in 2024?  Today, we have reports that Trump is telling his inner circle that Musk will leave the administration soon. Did anybody see that coming?

One of the best analytical pieces from Tuesday's elections is an article jointly published at The Hill and Yahoo! News, under the headline "5 takeaways from Wisconsin Supreme Court race, Florida special elections." Julia Manchester writes:

Democrats scored a critical win Tuesday in their first major test at the ballot box since President Trump took office in January.

The elections came amid growing anger over the Trump’s administration’s immigration and economic policies, its handling of free speech, and the federal cuts made under Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

The night served in part as a referendum on Musk, who has played an outsized role in the administration and poured millions of dollars into the Wisconsin race.

Meanwhile, Democrats sought to make inroads in the president’s home state of Florida, where two special House elections emerged as last-minute sleeper races that had some Republicans on edge.

While Republicans were able to hold on to the Florida seats, Democrats ultimately had cause for celebration in the Sunshine State.

Here are five takeaways from Tuesday night’s elections.

A bitter night for Trump and Musk in Wisconsin

Trump and Musk had a tough night in Wisconsin, a battleground state the president won by less than a percentage point in November, pointing to possible trouble ahead for the administration as it looks toward the midterms.

Both men endorsed Brad Schimel, a former GOP state attorney general, though it was Musk who became deeply invested in the race in the weeks leading up to the election. His America PAC spent $12.5 million alone in the race, and Musk himself traveled to the Badger State the Sunday before the election.

Democrats, who supported liberal candidate Susan Crawford, sought to harness anger toward Musk as a way to gin up their base — efforts that ultimately proved successful, as Crawford won decisively.

The election offers a warning sign for Republicans that Musk could be politically toxic in other key elections. Democratic candidates running in elections later this November and next year have already started to hammer Musk in their messaging.

But the results are also an embarrassment for Trump, who publicly urged Republican voters to back Schimel.

Ultimately, the Wisconsin race was the biggest rebuke yet faced by Republicans at the ballot box since Trump took office.

The president is sure to take notice as his party braces for an uphill climb in its effort to retain its House majority next year.

Democrats’ energy was through the roof

Democratic energy was on full display in both Wisconsin and Florida.

In Wisconsin, with more than 95 percent of the votes counted in the counties of Kenosha, Racine and Outagamie, Crawford was winning Kenosha with roughly 53 percent as of 11 p.m. EDT Tuesday — roughly the same amount Trump won the county with in 2024.

And while votes are still being tallied, Crawford also appeared to have a good shot at flipping Racine and Outagamie, counties Trump also won last year.

Crawford also overperformed in counties former Vice President Kamala Harris won in November, including in Door County where Crawford was winning the county with 56 percent, compared to Harris’s 51 percent.

While Democrats lost both special elections in Florida, the party clearly overperformed, narrowing the margins considerably in deep-red districts.

The results heartened Democrats, who have struggled to coalesce around a unified message since Trump took office.

If Tuesday proved anything, it’s that the party is still willing to organize and turn out in large numbers even if there’s frustration with the Democratic leadership.

Florida is still Trump Country, but . . .

Even as Democrats overperformed considerably in Florida’s 1st and 6th congressional districts, they failed to win — underscoring the GOP’s grip on the state.

By midafternoon Tuesday, data from Decision Desk HQ showed Republicans were dominating Election Day turnout.

Republicans enjoy a roughly 1.2 million voter registration advantage in the state, making turnout during an off-year special election their biggest obstacle. GOP candidate Randy Fine, in particular, faced criticism from Republicans for not raising enough money and for not airing ads sooner. Those same intraparty critics breathed a sigh of relief once the state senator went up on air and intensified his ground game.

Fine also got a boost from a number of Republican allies including Trump, Florida Sen. Rick Scott and Florida Rep. Byron Donalds, who all participated in tele-town halls with Fine. He also got a small boost from outside donors, including Musk.

The increased ground game, coupled with paid media, was enough to activate the district’s Republican bases enough to allow Fine and Jimmy Patronis to win with comfortable margins.

So while Democrats had reason to be happy in the Sunshine State, Tuesday still emphasized just how steep a climb they face as they look to make inroads in what is now a ruby-red state.

Republicans underperformed

Despite the fact Republicans turned out in Florida and ultimately nabbed wins, the party still underperformed in both special House elections, as well as in the Wisconsin race.

In Florida’s 6th District, Fine defeated his Democratic opponent Josh Weil by 14 points. Trump and Mike Waltz, the national security adviser who previously held the seat, won the district by more than 30 points in November.

But it was Democrat Gay Valimont’s overperformance in Florida’s 1st Congressional District that appeared to raise eyebrows even more. Patronis defeated Valimont by 14.8 points five months after Trump won the district by 37 points.

Democrats also celebrated flipping Escambia County, which Valimont won it by just more than 3 points Tuesday after Trump won it by nearly 20 points in November.

Democrats described the results as a warning to Republicans. Republicans, on the other hand, downplayed any notion of a silver lining for Democrats. “Florida’s resounding Republican victories send a clear message: Americans are fired up to elect leaders who will fight for President Trump’s agenda and reject the Democrats’ failed policies,” said Mike Marinella, spokesperson at the National Republican Congressional Committee. “While Democrats set their cash ablaze, House Republicans will keep hammering them for being out of touch — and we’ll crush them again in 2026."

In Wisconsin, many counties were still reporting results as of Tuesday night. But in Fond du Lac, one of a handful of GOP counties reporting more than 95 percent of its ballots counted, Schimel appeared to underperform Trump, winning 60 percent of the vote in a county Trump won last year with roughly 64 percent. In Florence, another county reporting more than 95 percent of ballots cast, Schimel narrowly trailed Trump, 73 percent to 75 percent. That’s not to mention that Crawford appeared on track to flip the Trump-won districts of Outagamie, Racine and Kenosha. The party’s underperformance was somewhat expected: Democrats have frequently dominated the GOP in turnout during off-year elections.

GOP gets some breathing room in the House

The GOP’s Florida wins means the party will have two more lawmakers heading to the House soon — a welcome development for the party as it grapples with the challenge of passing key priorities with a narrow margin.

Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) has faced obstacles navigating the GOP’s tight 218-213 majority in the House as he seeks to pass Trump’s agenda. House Republicans are looking to pass a budget reconciliation package that would combine border security, tax legislation, and energy and defense spending. The loss of one or two seats would shave off Republican reinforcements in the House.

That point was made clear last week when Trump announced he was pulling Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R-N.Y.) nomination to be U.S. ambassador to the United Nations.

Fine and Patronis were widely expected to win their races, but confirmation that the two districts will remain in GOP hands will come as a relief for Johnson.