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| Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump (Reuters) |
Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky is expected to meet with Donald Trump at the White House tomorrow to work out final details of a minerals deal that, in theory, is designed to broker an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. News reports yesterday, however, suggest Zelensky might be wasting his time.
That is because Trump already has said he will not guarantee Ukraine's security, leaving that up to Europe; Zelensky has said security guarantees must be a part of any peace plan to help ensure that Russia's Vladimir Putin does not decide to invade his neighbor again. Zelensky also has pushed for Ukraine to join NATO, but Trump said the country "can forget" that. (More on those issues in a moment.)
To make conditions even less favorable for peace, Trump clearly has soured on Zelensky over the past two weeks, and now it appears his supporters also have turned on Zelensky, according to a report yesterday at The Washington Post. Under the headline "Trump turned sharply against Zelensky. Now the MAGA base has, too; It’s the latest episode of Trump’s base quickly adopting his posture, despite the evidence." Aaron Blake writes:
At this point, it shouldn’t be surprising that Republicans would adopt President Donald Trump’s framing of things. Trump’s base has regularly aligned with him, even when his claims were baseless or wrong. (See: his wild claims of massive voter fraud in the 2020 election and the claims about Haitian migrants eating cats and dogs in Ohio late in the 2024 election, etc.)
But rarely have we seen as stark a shift as we’ve witnessed in the past week.
Starting on Tuesday of last week, Trump took a sharp turn against Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. He falsely accused Ukraine of starting the war with Russia and called Zelensky a “dictator” who wanted the war in his country to continue “to keep the ‘gravy train’ going.”
The Republican base, it turns out, has followed that up by taking its own sharp and sudden turn against Zelensky.
An Economist-YouGov poll, conducted largely before Trump’s comments, showed Republicans were about evenly split on Zelensky. While 40 percent had an unfavorable view of him, 38 percent had a favorable one.
Today, Zelensky’s numbers have fallen off a cliff with Republicans. Fully 56 percent now dislike him, compared with 20 percent who still hold a favorable view.
The poll provides details about the fall Zelensky's image has taken in the eyes of Trump's strongest allies. Blake writes:
The percentage of Republicans with a “very unfavorable” view of Zelensky doubled, from 16 percent to 32 percent.
Zelensky hasn’t been a popular figure with the Republican Party since about 2023. But that 36-point overall negative split is by far his worst to date. It makes him one of the most unpopular world figures with the right.
And it’s not the only evidence that Trump’s reluctance to support Ukraine and Zelensky — and now his decision to outwardly criticize them — has pushed the right away from an ally. It’s also apparently caused the right to reckon with the idea that Trump might not want Ukraine to win the war.
Dating at least to the Ronald Reagan era, Republicans have taken a dim view of the Soviet Union and Russia. But now, under Trump, the GOP appears to have forgotten the lessons Reagan taught. It now seems Democrats might be more likely than Republicans to adopt Reagan's distrusting view of Russia. During Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign, many Democrats began to see Trump as "Putin's Puppet," and evidence suggests the phrase might fit even more today than it did before. Baker writes:
Shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, nearly two-thirds of Republicans (64 percent) said Russia was an “enemy.” And that number largely stayed in the majority through 2024, including 53 percent shortly before the 2024 election.
Today, that number has declined into the 30s: The most recent poll shows just 38 percent of Republicans regard Russia as an “enemy.” Many instead label it “unfriendly.”
And just 10 percent of Republicans now regard Ukraine as an “ally,” while 3 percent say the same of Russia.
There are limits to how much of Trump’s view of the conflict his base is willing to swallow, but we also see large numbers adopting rather dubious claims.
Despite Trump’s repeated false claims that Ukraine started the war, the new poll shows 57 percent of Republicans said it was Russia that started it. But even there, about 3 in 10 Republicans said either that Ukraine started it (6 percent) or that both countries are “equally” to blame (23 percent).
And a separate YouGov poll last week showed Republicans are about evenly split on Trump’s false claim that Zelensky is a “dictator.” While 31 percent said Zelensky is not, 33 percent said he is.
(Zelensky was popularly elected, and while Ukraine didn’t hold a scheduled election last year, that’s because its constitution doesn’t allow for them while the country is under martial law. Its parliament this week unanimously affirmed Zelensky’s legitimacy and the requirement that elections can’t currently be held.)
Republicans once seemed to be the Americans who held rock-solid views in favor of a tough foreign policy. ("Don't tread on me.") Now, they seem to have morphed into change agents -- or at least "I'm gonna change my mind agents." From The Post's report:
Another shift has come on views of Trump’s posture.
For the past year-plus, Americans have generally viewed Trump as sympathizing more with Russia than with Ukraine — a striking review of his foreign policy, given Russia has long been an adversary. But Republicans resisted this framing; a December 2023 Economist-YouGov poll showed 43 percent of Republicans said Trump favored Ukraine, compared with just 5 percent who said he favored Russia. The gap was 27-10 in Ukraine’s favor just last week.
Today, Republicans aren’t so sure. They’re now nearly as likely to say that Trump favors Russia (16 percent) as that he favors Ukraine (23 percent).
We haven’t seen as wholesale a shift in whom Republicans themselves favor; 47 percent sympathize more with Ukraine, while just 6 percent sympathize more with Russia.
But to the extent Trump continues his campaign to attack Ukraine and Zelensky, we shouldn’t be too surprised if those numbers narrow, too. Trump has certainly laid the groundwork, and there are already signs that he’s moving his base.
What about the notion that Zalensky might be wasting his time with a trip to the White House? An article at sharghdaily.com, titled "Zelensky expected to visit Washington on Friday to meet Trump," points in that direction:
Ukraine's prime minister disclosed the details of a draft minerals deal with the United States on Wednesday, saying its wording showed Washington backed Kyiv's effort to get security guarantees, but touting nothing more concrete for now.
The deal is at the heart of Kyiv's push to win over Donald Trump's robust support as the U.S. president strives to reach a rapid end to the war with Russia that Ukraine's supporters fear could come at the expense of its national interests.
Denys Shmyhal, Ukraine's prime minister, said the government would authorize the draft agreement later Wednesday so it could be signed, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy expected to visit Washington on Friday to meet Trump.
He said: "After the Ukrainian president and the U.S. president agree on security guarantees, agree on how we tie this preliminary agreement to security guarantees from the United States for our country, in the presence of [both] presidents, a representative of the Ukrainian government will sign this preliminary agreement."
The prime minister, outlining the draft in televised comments, said Kyiv would contribute 50% of "all proceeds received from the future monetisation of all relevant state-owned natural resource assets and relevant infrastructure."
Those proceeds would go into a fund under the joint control of the United States and Ukraine, he said.
"Already existing deposits, facilities, licenses, and rents are not subject to discussion when creating this fund," he added.
Note that Ukraine's prime minister says that once Zelensky and Trump have agreed on security guarantees from the United States, the Ukrainian government will sign the preliminary agreement. Trump, however, already has said there will be no security guarantees. That suggests Zelensky's best bet is to hope for a refund on his airline ticket.
An article at The Times of India, under the headline "Trump says Ukraine can ‘forget about’ joining NATO as he plans to host Zelensky," points in the same direction:
US President Donald Trump says Ukraine can “forget about” joining NATO as he prepares to host Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for talks.
Trump also says he hopes to soon speak face-to-face with Russian President Vladimir Putin in hopes of reaching an agreement to end the war in Ukraine that began when Moscow invaded in February 2022.
The Republican president declines to detail what concessions he will ask the two sides to make, but he underscores his administration’s position that Ukraine’s aspiration to join NATO, the Western military alliance, is not tenable.
“NATO, you can forget about it,” Trump says. “I think that’s probably the reason the whole thing started.”
Let's see if we have this straight: Trump is going to blame the war on NATO, not Russia? That sounds like a talking point that came right from Putin's mouth. Given Trump's long-term bromance with the Russian leader -- and the financial favors Russian oligarchs (probably at Putin's encouragement) reportedly have lavished on Trump over a period of decades -- the talking points probably did come straight from Putin.
Maybe Trump will have the good manners and decency to ring Zelensky and say, "We really don't have anything to discuss, so why don't you just stay home, save a little money -- I'm big on that these days -- and play some golf over the weekend -- I'm big on that, too, especially when taxpayers are paying the freight."
We are talking here about Donald Trump, and he likely does not have good manners, and we know decency is beyond him. So Zelensky is likely to get stuck in Washington. Trump probably knows some big-time hookers, so maybe "Z" can ask about that as an entertainment option. Unlike Trump, "Z" might take his marriage seriously, so perhaps he can score tickets to the Dropkick Murphys concert tonight at The Anthem -- DC. I don't know much about Dropkick Murphys, but they are described as "an American celtic punk band." You can't get much more eclectic than that, and they are known for "loud, energetic live shows." Heck, I might enjoy that. Maybe I can call "Z" and invite him to the concert, so he won't get stuck having to hang out with Trump.
I'm not the flashiest guy around -- my musical tastes run toward artists like the Eagles, Fleetwood Mac, John Fogerty, Billy Joel, the Doobie Brothers, and Phil Collins (with a predilection for the Ozark Mountain Daredevils.) But hanging out with me has to be better than spending an evening with Trump. A good concert is one of my favorite forms of entertainment, and I think Dropkick Murphys might fit the bill. Gotta give Z a call.
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| Dropkick Murphys (Music Museum of New England) |
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