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| Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro speaks out for Harris (Shapiro Campaign) |
Kamala Harris has taken a five-point lead nationally over Donald Trump, driven partly by a whopping 17-point margin among independent voters, according to an article at floridapolitics.com (dated 10/3/24) about recent polling in the 2024 presidential race. Under the headline "Will moderate voters propel Harris to victory in November?" Ryan Nicol writes:
A new survey from Susquehanna Polling & Research (SP&R) shows Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris with a 5-point lead nationally over former Republican President Donald Trump.
SP&R pollsters found Harris with 49% support among 1,001 likely voters. Trump is at just 44% in the poll.
Harris is being buoyed by a big lead among independents, as she tops Trump 53% to 37%. Both candidates dominate among their respective parties, with Harris up with 94% support to Trump’s 0% among Democrats, and Trump leads among Republicans 93% to 2%.
Split along political ideology rather than by political party, Trump leads Harris 89% to 5% among self-described conservatives, while liberal/progressive voters prefer Harris over Trump 94% to 1%. Among self-described moderates, Harris also leads big, 67% to 26%.
The biggest gap in the survey, however, involves gender. Harris holds a sizable lead among people of color, while Trump has a similar margin among White voters. Harris has a big lead among young voters, while Trump's strongest age group is those 85 and older. (Are these folks aware that Trump and Congressional Republicans clearly intend to tinker with -- overhaul might be a better word -- Social Security and Medicare? Does anyone trust Trump and the GOP to make those programs better or just muck them up beyond recognition? I'm betting on the "muck them up" part. As for Nicol, he provides more detail on recent polling:
Reinforcing the massive gender split seen in previous polls, Trump leads among men 53% to 39%, while Harris leads among women 58% to 36%.
Harris has a big advantage with Black voters (83% to 6%) and Hispanic voters (71% to 25%), while Trump is winning among White voters (51% to 42%).
Harris’ biggest lead among various age groups is in the 18-29 demographic, where she leads 61% to 33%. Trump does best among voters 85 and older, where he leads 48% to 38%.
Harris also is up with voters aged 30-44 (51% to 45%), 45-54 (47% to 43%) and 65-74 (48% to 42%).
Trump, meanwhile, has an edge among voters aged 55-65 (49% to 47%) and 75-84 (49% to 47%).
SP&R conducted the survey Sept. 23 to Oct. 1. The poll has a 3.2-percentage-point margin of error.
Harris' overall advantage is larger than that shown in most major polling averages. And a number of key variables -- most especially the Electoral College -- could tighten the race even further. Nicol concludes:
Harris’ 5-point lead overall is larger than most major polling averages show. Nate Silver’s independent forecast has her up 3.4 points, while FiveThirtyEight gives her a 2.7-point lead and RealClearPolitics shows her ahead by 2.2 points.
It’s worth noting the election is decided state-by-state, not by the national popular vote, so it remains to be seen how Harris’ lead nationally will translate to the Electoral College. Forecasters do still seem to give Harris the edge there, however, with FiveThirtyEight giving her a 58% chance to win and bettors on PredictIt also pegging her as the favorite.
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