Monday, December 9, 2024

Trump calls for ceasefire in Russia-Ukraine war after talks with Zelensky, but plans to pull U.S. out of NATO might run afoul of Congress, which tends to support the alliance and must approve any U.S. withdrawal

Zelensky and Trump meet in Paris (Belga)

Donald Trump yesterday called for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war. It was not, however, immediately clear what Trump's plan might involve. From a report at USA TODAY and the Microsoft Network (MSN):

Donald Trump on Sunday called for an immediate ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia to end “the madness” in the region.

The president-elect's message, which he shared on Truth Social, came hours after Trump met with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris. Trump vowed during the presidential campaign to bring an end to the conflict, which he said he could do before his inauguration, but he has provided few details as to how he intends to do so.

"Zelenskyy and Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness," Trump wrote on Truth Social. "There should be an immediate ceasefire and negotiations should begin." 

Trump named a special envoy to address the war late last month, who previously proposed a negotiated end to the invasion that would begin with a ceasefire and include a delay in NATO membership for Ukraine. The president-elect's transition team did not immediately respond to a request for comment whether that was reflective of the ceasefire proposal Trump shared Sunday.

Trump also said in a Meet the Press interview that was taped Friday, just before he left for France (that was set to air on Sunday morning), he would end the war “if I can" and that Ukraine could “possibly” receive less military assistance from the U.S. when he is in office.

He also said the U.S. would remain in NATO if other countries step up their contributions. “If they pay their bills, absolutely," he said.

Currently, 23 of the alliance's 32 members meet the minimum 2% GDP defense spending guideline, which is a target and not a requirement. That is up from the three countries, including the U.S., who met the baseline a decade ago. It would take an act of Congress to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, and the alliance has long enjoyed bipartisan support on Capitol Hill.

Zelenskyy and the Kremlin responded that a ceasefire must come with conditions to ensure it lasts.

"When we talk about effective peace with Russia, we must first and foremost talk about effective guarantees for peace. Ukrainians want peace more than anyone else. Russia brought war to our land, and it is Russia that most seeks to disrupt the possibility of peace," Zelenskyy said on X, formerly known as Twitter.

"It cannot simply end with a piece of paper and a few signatures. A ceasefire without guarantees can be reignited at any moment, as Putin has already done before," he said. "To ensure that Ukrainians no longer suffer losses, we must guarantee the reliability of peace and not turn a blind eye to occupation."

Reuters reported Sunday that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters that Russia was open to talks, if they are based on agreements Putin says were reached in Istanbul in 2022 shortly after Russia invaded its neighboring country and on current battlefield realities.

Trump has not said publicly what a ceasefire would entail. But his recently appointed special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, previously proposed providing weapons to Ukraine during the negotiation process to ensure that Putin's army did not capture additional territory.

A paper that Kellogg published last year on the war proposed delaying Ukraine's membership into NATO for an "extended period" of time to get Russia to the negotiating table. The proposal said the agreement would come with a "comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees" for Ukraine.

"I believe we should reset our thinking about the war. That does not mean Russia keeps everything it has seized in their egregious invasion of Ukraine. I do not support that and neither does Donald J. Trump," Kellogg told USA TODAY in July. "But I do believe you have to have a starting point to bring the war to a conclusion. That means a start of discussions or negotiations."

A source familiar with the conversations taking place among Trump's team about how to end the war said Ukraine would not be forced to accept a deal that it doesn't believe is in its interest, but it would have to agree to sit down and talk to receive more weapons.

The waiting period for Ukraine to join NATO could potentially last anywhere from 10 to 25 years, the person said.

Kellogg has been working on a peace plan for months. How much of it Trump agrees with is unclear, although his selection of the retired U.S. Army lieutenant general for the post suggests they are in alignment.

A comment from Trump in this post should alarm all Americans, especially those who went to the polls (and against their better judgment) voted for the guy. It's another example of Trump spouting off on a subject that he clearly knows little or nothing about. That's a dangerous quality to have in a future president -- and if Americans did not know that on election day, they certainly should know it now. We will have more details on this subject in an upcoming post.

 

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