Donald Trump, a potential convicted felon, is the Republican Party's presumptive presidential nominee, but exit polls show his support is weak, and that should provide hope for the Democrats, Never-Trump Republicans, and independents who want to deny him a chance to carry out his threats to upend American democracy. That is the latest message from Mary L. Trump, psychologist, author, and Donald's niece -- who also happens to be one of her uncle's sharpest and most vocal critics. She says weak exit polls are a sign that Donald Trump can be beaten, denying him a chance to implement an extremist agenda that could break the U.S. constitutional order as we have come to know it. Writes Mary Trump:
Donald will inevitably clinch the Republican nomination, but the media ignored exit data that shows a clear path to Donald LOSING in 2024. It’s game on.
Lessons of Super Tuesday
At first glance, seeing a twice-impeached, 91-count-criminally-indicted defendant, who’s been found liable for fraud and RAPE become the de facto Republican nominee for the presidency of the United States is horrifying.
Before Super Tuesday polls even opened, I was greeted with this headline from The Washington Post’s, “The Early 202” in my inbox yesterday morning: “Super Tuesday Caps a Strong Political Week for Trump,” which is not how I wanted to start my day.
The degree to which Donald’s criminality (alleged and actual), authoritarianism, bigotry, and unfitness (both characterological and temperamental) all continue to be normalized by a weak, complacent, and, in some cases, complicit media. It surpasses belief.
The idea that Donald could win a single vote, let alone an election, is almost too much to bear.
But Mary Trump sees shining light beneath the dark, dystopian path Donald Trump has planned for America. And that light comes from exit-poll data. Mary writes
The exit data shows something promising – how WEAK Donald will be in the general election.
When I hear what some Republican voters are actually saying, I feel hope – not because we know anything with certainty, but because a path to defeat Donald is clearly emerging.
Inspiring data – Donald’s Nikki Haley headache
No one can or should spin the fact that Donald commands a hefty lead of support with Republican voters. Considering the state of the Republican party, there are no surprises here.
Nikki Haley was never going to win the primary, but what she accomplished was perhaps even more important. She helped to cultivate a significant and growing electorate — Never-Trump Republicans. These voters include:
Republicans who never supported Donald;
Republicans who previously voted for Donald, but are now waking up.
The second group provides the biggest chance for coalition-building in 2024. We know this because these voters are engaged.
Consider the Haley voter who gave the best reason -- in a TV interview -- for switching from Donald to Haley — “because the man is a lunatic.”
When this voter was asked what she will do in the general election, when there is a binary choice between Donald and Biden, she said, “I don’t know. It will be a hard decision.”
This is the audience we must reach: the swing voters who need to hear just how much better Biden is than the “lunatic.”
There are many people like her in key swing states and it’s telling that Haley performed best in the states that are the most important for Democrats to win, such as Virginia and Colorado, where she pulled in more than 33 percent of the vote.
This phenomenon goes beyond anecdotal evidence.
Exit data is horrible for Donald
Let’s take a deeper look at the numbers.
Consider CNN’s exit-poll data, which Manu Raja called a “warning sign” for Donald in the general election. In North Carolina, a state that is a much better representation of the country than some of the other deep red states:
A significant 66 percent of Haley voters said Donald is not physically or mentally fit to be president.
A vast majority, 81 percent of Haley voters, said they’re not an automatic vote for Donald.
According to ABC News, In Virginia, a plurality of Haley voters said they approved of the job Joe Biden was doing as president. In North Carolina, the number was 50 percent.
Haley voters have much more in common with Biden voters
The candidate who captures more of Haley’s voters will have the best path to victory in the general election.
And if you are looking for more encouragement, check out the priorities of these voters:
According to ABC News
76 percent of Haley voters oppose a federal abortion ban
60 percent support a chance for most undocumented immigrants to apply for legal status.
While 59 percent of Donald’s voters say they are “angry about the way things are going in this country,” only 21% of Haley’s voters feel that way.
The key, Mary writes, is to reach these voters with a central, cohesive message:
These people need to hear just how much they have in common with Democrats, and just how determined Donald Trump is to derail progress on the issues they claim to care about, while destroying everything they claim to value.
We just need to reach them.
Because, as Bob Cesca of The Bob Cesca Show, says, Donald always makes things worse for Donald, the leader of the Republican Party is giving us a head start.
Donald Trump's disrespectful, self-centered personality already has opened a pathway to Haley voters, Mary writes:
Donald insulted Haley’s voters… then tried to bully them into voting for him
Before Super Tuesday, Donald made his stance on Haley donors crystal clear (while calling Haley a “birdbrain” in the process).
“Anybody that makes a ‘contribution’ to Birdbrain [Haley], from this moment forth, will be permanently barred from the MAGA camp,” Donald wrote on Truth Social. “We don’t want them, and will not accept them.”
After Super Tuesday, Donald wrote again on Truth Social, "Much of [Haley’s] money came from Radical Left Democrats, as did many of her voters, almost 50%, according to the polls."
It’s now up to us to remind these voters what Donald really thinks of them, and how unwelcome they will be in their own party—every chance we get.
Clear, consistent communication is central to Mary's efforts to keep her uncle out of the White House. She writes:
The path is clear
In the eight months between now and Election Day, we need to pull out all of the stops in order to ensure that Donald loses, we dominate in the House, and win a meaningful majority in the Senate this November.
The corporate media has proven they either can’t or won't report accurately on the existential threat Donald and the Republican Party pose to the American Experiment or tell the full story of his worsening mental decline. They refuse to focus on Donald’s his increasingly fascistic rhetoric, his clearly stated authoritarian plans for a second, and the collection of vicious sycophants (e.g. Stephen Miller) upon whom he plans to bestow real power.
People like me, who have platforms, have to do everything in our power to fill that void.
It’s go time
My goal is to find as many ways as possible to
Win over swing voters
Win over former Haley voters
Get our friends and families to the polls (especially those who usually sit out elections)
Wake up even more Republicans currently lukewarm on Donald (and make sure they have the facts they need to make the right choice)
Amplify progressive voices
Thanks to your incredible support, The Good in Us (my Substack page0 is becoming an increasingly strong platform from which to accomplish all of this — and more.
And with your continued engagement, I can spend as many hours a day as possible to make sure Donald never possesses real power again, and the Republican Party becomes a hobbled, toothless minority party.
Why?
Ramping up our efforts worked in 2020. It’s even more urgent now. We need to go even bigger.
America remains on a knife’s edge between democracy and fascism. There is too much at stake to pretend otherwise.
Scores of studies show citizens need to feel hopeful their candidate can win the election in order to turn out — and I am determined to convince voters with hard-hitting facts, that Donald can, and will be held accountable in the court of law and at the polls.
I currently have 190,265 free subscribers. If just 5% chipped in for a membership at the price of a small coffee, I could reach even more voters with the hope and inspiration we need to save our democracy.
THANK YOU for your support, and for being by my side on this journey! – Mary
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