Wednesday, January 24, 2024

If Biden steps aside, would Joe Manchin be a sensible presidential candidate for Democrats? It's not clear Manchin is still a Democrat, so the answer is no

Joe Manchin: The Gun Guy
 

Joe Biden should bow out of the presidential race to allow U.S. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) to become the Democratic Party nominee , according to a post from longtime Alabama attorney and political observer Donald Watkins. I am a friend and admirer of Watkins -- as evidenced by the dozens of posts I've written based on his legal insights, investigative reporting, and news analysis. But proposing Joe Manchin to head the Democratic Party tickets is one of the worst ideas I've heard in a long time.

Further, Watkins says he is willing to direct about $75 million in donations from his nationwide network of political friends and allies to Joe Manchin's campaign, should he run for the presidency. My reaction? If Watkins is going to use that money to support Manchin, he might as well flush it down the toilet and close up shop on his political network, which I understand is designed to support independent voting. (I have a much better, and more serious, idea for using that money, but I will touch on that in moment. It actually will do a world of good; supporting Joe Manchin will accomplish nothing.)

First, there is so much wrong with the idea of supporting Joe Manchin as the Democratic candidate, that I hardly know where to begin. But let me take a crack at pointing to a few problems with it:

* In an interview with CBS News three days ago (1/21/24), Manchin said he would wait until after Super Tuesday in March to decide if he is going to run for president as an independent; he made no mention of running as a Democrat. To me, this sounds like the idea of Manchin representing the Democratic Party is a non-starter.

* From a CBS report on the event where Manchin made his comments:

Asked by the event's moderator Friday who would get his vote if Biden and Trump are the nominees, Manchin declined to answer.

"That's a difficult question right there," he said. "You have to make a decision - the character of that candidate, whether you agree or disagree, whether you support or haven't supported, whether you're in the same political party or not."

Earlier in his speech, Manchin emphasized the importance of "the character of the people who want to serve." But he declined to say whether Trump or Biden has a stronger character when asked by a reporter.

"You're going to make that decision, I already made my decision," he said.

What are we to take from this? (1) Asked who would get his vote between Biden or Trump, Manchin declined to answer; (2) Manchin seems unsure if he is in Trump's Republican Party or Biden's Democratic Party; (3) Machin declined to say who has the stronger character, Trump or Biden -- but he already has made his decision on the question.

In other words, Manchin might wind up voting for Trump, he might be a Republican, and he can't tell if Trump (with four criminal indictments on 91 counts, plus a declaration from a judge that he is a "rapist") or Biden has the stronger character.In short, Manchin had three opportunities to give an answer that indicated he is a Democrat -- and he failed each time. Dems are going to rush to the polls to support a candidate like that? I don't think so.

Manchin's responses to those questions are pitiful and should disqualify him as a representative of the Democratic Party

* Here is more insight on Manchin from the CBS report: "The West Virginia Democrat . . .  insisted his only goal was to promote his new Americans Together organization aimed at fostering bipartisanship and giving moderates a voice.

* In other words, Manchin is all about being a moderate, and caving in to, I mean working across the aisle with, Republicans. There is little or no sign that he is a fit for Democrats in any capacity, much less as their presidential candidate.

* If Joe Biden were to step aside -- and I don't believe he will, or should -- Democrats need someone who is more liberal, not less, than Biden.

* If Biden were to drop out of the picture, I think Pete Buttigieg (Biden's Secretary of Transportation), Michigan Gov. Getchen Whitmer, and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker all would be strong alternatives. As Watkins notes, Vice President Kamala Harris does not poll well, so it might be best to pass on her for now at such a divisive time. 

* Do you want the truth about Joe Manchin? Much of it can be found in an article titled "Senator Joe Manchin: A Profile in Courage or Cowardice? at fairobserver.com. Writes Logan M. Williams:

On Novermber 9, 2023, Senator Joe Manchin announced his decision not to pursue re-election to his West Virginia Senate seat. Recent polling indicated that he trailed his Republican opponent by an ever-increasing margin, and New York magazine columnist  Ed Kilgore described Manchin as the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate.

Manchin is one of the US’ least popular senators. A foolish primary run would almost certainly result in a victory for Joe Biden after unnecessarily dividing the party. Even worse, if Manchin did manage to win, he would likely lose against Trump in the general election. It would be exceedingly selfish for Manchin to run. He would be prioritizing his own ego over the survival of US democracy.

In short, Manchin is not giving up his U.S. Senate seat for a noble reason. He knows that polling shows he would kick his butt kicked in a 2024 race. With Manchin polling so poorly in his home state, you might as well elevate Kamala Harris. She almost certainly would fare better than Manchin on a national level. A New York columnist described Manchin as "the most vulnerable Democrat in the Senate." Logan M. Williams described him as "one of the US' least popular senators. Williams also says that Manchin, if he prevailed in a primary, would likely lose to Trump in a general election. So, Manchin is supposed to be the Democratic choice for president? Great idea if you want an albatross to head the ticket -- even better idea if you want to write a one-way ticket for Donald Trump to the White House.

* The Democratic Party is leaning more to the left, and that's probably because liberals stand for something -- while Joe Manchin doesn't stand for anything. Even a number of Republicans are saying their party has accomplished so little that they have nothing to run on. That's because the party long ago pretty much gave up on even trying to govern. In the Democratic Party, meanwhile, the left is ascendant, as shown in a report yesterday from the Axios AM newsletter:

Gen Z adults are less likely to join an established religion, far more likely to identify as LGBTQ and generally less likely to be Republicans, Axios' Russell Contreras writes from a new survey by PRRI (Public Religion Research Institute).

  • Why it matters: Gen Zers are the most racially and ethnically diverse generation in U.S. history — and they'll make up about 1 in 6 of the voting-age population in 2024.

 Gen Z is more left-leaning than older Americans, with 43% identifying as liberal, the survey found.

  • About 28% of Gen Z adults identify as LGBTQ, compared with 16% of millennials, 7% of Generation X, 4% of baby boomers and 4% of the Silent Generation.
  • Gen Z adults are more likely to identify as religiously unaffiliated (33%) than every generation except millennials.

Why am I a liberal? Perhaps some background is in order: I grew up in a middle-class home, the son of a federal employee -- a postal clerk, who was a union man. I came to believe that the government, despite what Ronald Reagan claimed, was a force for good. And my dad's status as a union man meant he could not be fired on someone's whim. That provided a touch of security in a world that was rapidly changing in the '60s and '70s. It gave me the sense that my dad could continue to support a family of six on a clerk's wages, meaning my siblings and I had a mother who was actually around to raise us -- something for which I strive to always be grateful.

From an existential perspective, there is this: My father served in the U.S. Army and was part of a squadron that arrived at Normandy beach three days after the D-Day invasion. I don't know the exact nature of their mission, but my best guess is that it involved recovery -- of bodies, equipment, maybe German intelligence. I imagine that unexploded land mines and other munitions posed a threat to my dad's life with every step. And, of course, there was a good chance, with every step, that my siblings and I would never be born -- and our mother would become a widow. Few days pass without me thinking that my grasp on life was fragile before I even had a life. I hope that inspires me to be grateful for every day, every moment, that I'm allowed in this earthly life. It definitely makes me cherish our democracy because my family almost gave up everything to defend it. I find it offensive when Trump and his MAGA goons take shots at the Democratic norms that have served us so well since 1776. The Trump goons are a spoiled, warped, ungrateful bunch

Around 1990, I cashed in on a promise I had made to myself: to start regularly reading books, for enlightenment and enjoyment. Two books that shaped my political views are The Politics of Rich and Poor, by Kevin Phillips and Chain Reaction: The Impact of Race, Rights, and Taxes, by Thomas and Mary Edsall. As far back as I can remember, I've leaned Pro-Choice on the abortion-rights issue, but a book by Harvard Law Professor Laurence Tribe, Abortion: The Clash of Absolutes, provided a foundation of knowledge to go with my opinions. I strongly recommend it for anyone interested in doing serious reading on the subject.

As for Donald Watkins take on things, he says this: "Joe Biden needs to bow out of the race, ASAP.  Voters are not buying whatever Biden is selling.  Biden is old, tired, frail, and senile. He reminds me of expired milk.

"Anybody else in Biden’s physical and mental condition would be living in a nursing home or an assisted living facility by now."
 
Yes, Biden is 81 years old, but he does not look overly tired or frail to me. As for the senility issue, I've seen no document or statement from a medical expert that says Biden is senile. In fact, there is evidence that Biden's cognitive faculties are stronger than Donald Trump's, given a report yesterday from The New Republic (TNR) titled "Cognitive Decline? Listen to Trump Try to Describe Missile Defense":

Donald Trump took the road less traveled on Monday, opting to use sounds and shapes rather than words to explain what he had in mind for America’s military.

During a campaign stop in Laconia, New Hampshire—the last rally before the state’s Republican primary—Trump announced that under his leadership, the country would copy and paste Israel’s Iron Dome defense system over our own national borders. That idea, by the way, has previously earned him ridicule even by the likes of Fox News.

“I will build an Iron Dome over our country, a state-of-the-art missile defense shield made in the USA,” Trump said. “We do it for other countries. We help other countries, we build, we don’t do it for ourselves.”

         But then, things got weird as Trump tried once again to assert his “extremely stable genius” status.

        These are not muscle guys here, they’re muscle guys up here, right,” Trump said, gesturing to his           arms and then his head.

“And they calmly walk to us, and ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding.… They’ve only got 17 seconds to figure this whole thing out. Boom. OK. Missile launch. Woosh. Boom,” he added.

The stunning performance comes after the 77-year-old bragged that he “aced” a cognitive test that required him to correctly identify a giraffe, tiger, and whale. According to Trump, that means his “mind is stronger now than it was 25 years ago.” In reality, that test is meant to measure dementia or cognitive decline, and it has never included the combination of animals Trump keeps mentioning.

Trump’s cognitive decline has been in question recently after the GOP front-runner was spotted with mysterious red sores on his hands. Trump has also been making increasingly nonsense remarks during his campaign tangents—last week, the former president said he would stop banks from “debanking” Americans—and confusing major players in American politics. During another campaign speech, Trump switched up former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and his only rival in the GOP race, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, several times, blaming Haley for the events of January 6 while claiming she turned down extra security. (The House committee assigned to probe the attack found no evidence to support Trump’s claim, which he has previously leveled at Pelosi.)

You can view Trump's version of word salad by clicking on this link. It's clear to me that Biden's cognitive function is well ahead of Trump's. In fact, I've been convinced for some time that Trump is mentally unwell and unfit to serve in any public office -- and I've written about it on several occasions. Most of the published reports from experts on psychology and mental health focus on signs that Trump is a narcissistic sociopath. 

As for a good way to spend Watkins' money, I would suggest he spend it on domestic-animal welfare, especially for cats and dogs. (For the record, I'm not so arrogant that I believe Watkins needs my advice on spending HIS money; it's HIS money, and he can spend it however he wishes. I'm just tossing out an idea that I believe would do way more good than sending cash to Joe Manchin.)

My wife, Carol, and I have had four pets since we've been married. My blog is named in honor of our first pet, a miniature schnauzer named Murphy. We had two Siamese/Tonkinese cats -- the brother-sister combo of Baxter and Chloe -- who sort of fell into our laps. And we've had a cat we found in a feral colony near where we lived at one point; it probably would be more accurate to say he found us than the other way around. It's hard for us to put into words what the four or them have meant to us. Suffice to say, they probably have done more for us than we've done for them.

And yet, our country is filled with un-homed cats and dogs -- and that is a national tragedy. Humans have domesticated these animals, and they are no longer suited for living in the wild, out in the elements. Watkins' funds could go a long way toward finding homes for cats and dogs -- and that probably would make a positive impact on the mental health of America's "hoomans." It would be a "win-win" on multiple levels.

As for Joe Manchin, he is a spineless, wishy-washy "moderate," who offers nothing much beyond refried conservatism. If you are going to support him, you might as well support Trump. At least Trump is interesting, in a sick, annoying, trainwreck way.

Manchin essentially represents a form of Republican Lite, whose adherents admit their party has run out of ideas and has nothing much in the way of accomplishments to run on.

West Virginia has become a Republican stronghold since 2000, so it's possible Manchin would not even carry his own state if he ran as a Democrat. Let's not go down the Joe Manchin rabbit hole. Democrats can do way better than that; our country needs way better than that.

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